Deternrinants Analysis of the Out-migration between Prefectures in Japa n : From Socio-economic and Local Administration and Finance Standpo ints

It is often said that population inflow into cities in Japan has softened due to Japan's recession in recent years. Moreover, considering the migration trends for each region, Thkyo and Nagoya area continue to experience net in-migration, while Osaka region net out-migration. Therefore, in order to probe into the determinants of migration in Japan, we conduct a causality analysis of the out· migration (1985·1990, 1995-2000) from Osaka prefecture to other ones for young, middle and old-age generations. Gravity model is used as a theoretical model, and SUR as an analytical one. The results show that transportation distance and abundance of nature have a negative effect on demographic shifts, while life·safety net and old-age welfare service a positive one; this tendency is very remarkable for the old·age generation. In addition, since economic environment and state of local administration and finance aren't significant, people may take an only short·sighted view.